基金管理的七宗原罪(Seven Sins of Fund Management)

下面是幫Makssin讀友整理一下投資行為對投資過程的影響,主要有7項錯誤原罪,這些是Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein 針對Equity Strategy所發表的,希望對Makssin 讀友有幫助ㄋ


The first was placing forecasting at the very heart of the investment process. An enormous amount of evidence suggests that investors are generally hopeless at forecasting. So using forecasts as an integral part of the investment process is like tying one hand behind your back before you start.


第1,將預測視為投資的核心.大量充分的證據顯示投資人對預測不應該抱持著希望


Secondly, investors seem to be obsessed with information. Instead of focusing on a few important factors (such as valuations and earnings quality), many investors spend countless hours trying to become experts about almost everything. The evidence suggests that in general more information just makes us increasingly over-confident rather than better at making decisions.


第2,對資訊迷戀,反而忽略重要的因子(如估值,盈餘品質),投資人花無數的時間想成為很多行業的專家,證據卻顯示愈多的資訊,只會造成投資人過度自信,而非更高的投資決策


Thirdly, the insistence of spending hours meeting company managements strikes us as bizarre from a psychological standpoint. We aren’t good at looking for information that will
prove us to be wrong. So most of the time, these meetings are likely to be mutual love ins. Our ability to spot deception is also very poor, so we won’t even spot who is lying.


第3,堅持去跟管理層會面數小時從心理的觀點來看顯得怪異,因為我們不善常去尋找那些證明我們有錯的的資訊,以至於大部分的這些會面都是打哈哈,我們也看不出謊言與到底誰再欺騙.


Fourthly, many investors spend their time trying to ‘beat the gun’ as Keynes put it.Effectively, everyone thinks they can get in at the bottom and out at the top. However,this seems to be remarkably hubristic.


第4,很多投資人花很多時間就如同凱因斯一樣想擊敗其他投資人,導致每個人都認為它能勝出,這似乎相當驕傲


Fifthly, many investors seem to end up trying to perform on very short time horizons and overtrade as a consequence. The average holding period for a stock on the NYSE is 11 months! This has nothing to do with investment, it is speculation, pure and simple.


第5,投資人過度短線交易,平均NYSE持股週期是11個月,對投資來說這是毫無關係的,因為這是投機.


Penultimately, we all appear to be hardwired to accept stories. However, stories can be very misleading. Investors would be better served by looking at the facts, rather than getting sucked into a great (but often hollow) tale.


第6,我們很容易被故事所吸引,然而故事卻可以誤導投資人,投資人應該要相信事實而非故事


And finally, many of the decisions taken by investors are the result of group interaction.Unfortunately groups are far more a behavioural panacea. In general, they amplify rather than alleviate the problems of decision making.


最後,很多投資決策是集體所決定的,不幸的是,團體就像是一個行為的妙靈丹,它強化了決策相同的部分,消除了相異的部分


By James Montier (From Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein)