Peter Lynch給投資人的建議 (From The Harvard Investment Club)

今天剛好颱風跑來台灣,大家都在家裡抱棉被補眠,麥大冒著生命危險跑去買珍奶,一路上招牌搖搖擺擺,好刺激ㄋ,哈哈.....這邊就來整理一下投資大師peter lynch在Harvard的lecture給Makssin讀友參考,peter lynch 是成長型投資策略,他主持的麥哲倫基金有年化29%的報酬,資產也從1800萬美金到140億,相當驚人.....下面就是它對一般人的投資建議......


A. Know what you own!!
When a stock goes down and you don’t understand what the company does, you don’t know whether to sell or buy more. Don’t buy things that are complicated. He bought stocks like Dunkin Donuts. Keep in mind, the average stock has had a range of 100% from high to low. If you don’t know what you own, you are likely to “turf it” (sell it right before it goes up). People should employ their advantages, and buy stuff they know a lot about.

了解你擁有的股票!!
如果你不了解你擁有公司股票是做蝦咪業務時,當股票上漲或是下跌時妳就不知道何時買或是何時賣.如果可以,盡量買那些業務簡單的公司,如賣甜甜圈的公司.要記得的是,股票從高到底只有100%的範圍,如果你不知道你的股票是做蝦咪的,你就可能在它上漲前就把它賣了.一般投資人應該投資那些自己可以理解範圍的公司.


B. It is futile to predict the economy, interest rates and the stock market. (*ignore this point*  )

You just don’t know what is going to happen. Predicting the future is a waste of time. If you spend 13 minutes on economics you have wasted 10 minutes. Small economics…asking questions like: how much does aluminum cost? and does a recession impact used cars or new car sales? are a good idea.

去預測經濟,利率或是股市是無用的!! (請記得要忽略這些)
你不需要知道未來會發生蝦咪事.預測本身就是浪費時間.你應該要問的是微觀經濟的問題,譬如說鋁的成本是多少ㄋ??經濟衰退對二手車與新車影響為何ㄋ這才是你該理解的


C. You have plenty of time.

When WMT went public they were a 15 year old company. 10 years later they were up 10x and after 15 more years 30x more (300x total). There are good companies, but not a lot of them. Fortunately, you don’t need to find a lot of them just a few over a career.

你擁有充分的時間去購買股票!!
當威名百貨才剛上市時,他們實際上已經是擁有15年年資的老公司,10年過後它們漲了10倍,之後的15年他又漲了30倍(總共300倍).總是有為數不多的好公司等著你去購買,好險你不需要全部都找到.


D. 10 most dangerous things people say about stock prices(10個人們常談論股票危險的事情)



1. If its gone down this much already it can’t go any lower.
One of his favorite stocks went from 15 to 12.5 to 9 all the way to 3. He was still confident thinking that he was “a little early”. With a level head, he bought more and ultimately did well on the investment.


股票已經跌很多了,不可能在低了
投資人擁有一檔喜歡的股票從15 元跌到12.5,再到9,最後到3元.它依舊相信是它買早了,當作頭時,它會買更多,最終它就套牢了


2. If it has gone this high, it can’t go higher.
This is simply not true. MCD, MSFT, GOOG are all examples.

如果股票已經漲了這樣高,它不可能在更高了
事實上這是錯的,如MCD,MEFT,GOOG就不是如此

3. Eventually they always come back.
Sometimes they don’t.


最後股票一定會漲回來
有些永遠不會

4. It is trading at $3. How much can I lose?
All of it.

我買3塊的股票,能跌多少ㄋ??
答案是零

5. Its always darkest before dawn.
It is darkest before complete blackout.

黎明來臨之前總是黑暗的
可能一直都是黑暗

6. When it rebounds to $10, I’ll sell.
Numbers don’t matter. They are arbitrary.

當股票反彈到10元我就賣
可能一直都反彈不到你的價位

7. What me worry? Conservative stocks don’t fluctuate much.
Things change. See the electric utility industry.

不用擔心,保守型股票不會波動很大
看看電力行業吧,跌的有時很兇ㄋ..

8. Look at all the money I’ve lost, I didn’t buy it.
Don’t look at the ones you miss.

看看我損失的錢,我竟然沒買到飆股
不要看那些你沒買到的飆股

9. I missed that one. I’ll catch the next one.
Maybe not.

我已經錯過這一檔股票了,我會抓住下一檔
這可不一定ㄋ

10. The stock has gone up/down I must be right/wrong.
Don’t start buying because stocks go up. There is a 100 percent correlation between earnings and stock performance over time.

股票上漲,我一定是對的,股票下跌時,我一定是錯的
不要因為股票上漲就去買,也不要急著證明自己是對的.因為股票長期來看上漲是跟盈餘相關,還需時間去證明ㄋ...

E. Avoid Long Shots.
The company says “If this works and that works it goes up 20 fold!” But now…no sales. Mr. Lynch was for 30 on these.


避免相信遙不可及的承諾
如果上市公司說諸如,如果產品可以正常工作的話,它將會提升公司業績,請忽略它,特別是他連銷售都還沒

F. Importance of Management.
Management is important, but if you have a bad industry and terrific management, you can’t win. But simple businesses don’t need much management. Mr. Lynch wants to buy a company that any fool can run, because eventually one will.

好的管理有一定的重要性
好的管理是重要的,但如果你是在差勁的產業擁有差勁的管理,你就完了.通常簡單的業務不需要複雜的管理,如果你能買連猴子都能經營得公司,總有一天真的猴子就會來經營.


G. Be Flexible.
Even when industries are successful, you can still lose. MCD, Outback, etc. made money in the restaurant industry even when it was growing at 2%. Even shrinking industries are OK. An industry not going anywhere but where you have a monopoly makes money. Bankruptcy is OK.

擁有彈性!!
縱使一個產業是光明的,一家公司依舊會搞得一團糟,如在飯店業成長2%的MCD, Outback.對於一個日薄西山不知要到何處還OK的產業,除非你賺的是壟斷財,你是有可能破產的


H. When to Sell.
When to sell is exactly when to buy. Always write down the reason why you made the investment decision. What is the story?
Stick by the reasons. If the story changes or you are wrong, sell…unless you can come up with a new story.

何時賣股票ㄋ??
你賣股票的理由恰好跟買股票的理由相反,要記得你之前購買股票的理由,並且把它記下來,它背後的故事是蝦咪,如果購買的理由消失了,賣了它吧!!.....除非你有新的故事...

I. There is always something to worry about!

The organ in the stock market is not the brain. It is the stomach. There is way too much news now.Key example was in 1991: Recession was imminent, 1st War in Iraq was starting (big concerns about major losses), Banking system was on the brink, etc. But…it all turned around. You can’t get too distracted by background noise.After Caesar died, the market in Rome probably crashed. In the year 1 BC, people worried about Y0k. In 1999 it was Y2k. People overreact. There is always something to be nervous about.The news today is the depressing channel and the super depressing channel. But look at Brazil, Philippines, Chile, Eastern Europe…there is good news out there.

忽略無謂的煩惱!!
股市充斥有太多的新聞,例如在1991年經濟衰退迫在眉睫,伊朗戰爭開打,一下銀行系統處在瓦解邊緣,投資人實在不需要分心在這些新聞的雜訊上.其他還有如...在凱薩大帝死後,人們擔心羅馬股市是否崩盤,2000年時是否有千禧危機....等等.看看巴西,菲律賓,智利和東歐,總是有好消息的,別做無謂的煩惱...


by Peter Lynch (REF:http://paranoidbull.com/2008/04/peter-lynch-visits-harvard/)